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DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/11 10:58
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Higher at Midday Monday
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 5
to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 5
to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is firmer at midday with the S&P 22 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 2 points lower. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is
firmer with crude up 2.20 and natural gas up .15. Livestock trade is sharply
higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 12.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday as we work back toward the
top of the range heading to the WASDE report Tuesday, along with the China
summit this week. On the report, trade is looking for old-crop carryout at
2.145 billion bushels (bb) and new crop at 1.923 bb on the first look for the
year. Ethanol margins should firm a little if unleaded continues to drift
higher. The daily export wire saw 388,000 metric tons sold to Mexico and
128,000 metric tons sold to South Korea. Weekly export inspections were solid
at 1.690 million metric tons (mmt) with year-to-date pace holding at 130%.
Basis likely continues to hold the recent range into the start of May. Open
weather and temps edging back higher after Monday should support planting
through midmonth. The weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show planting
and emergence solidly ahead of the 5-year average. On the July chart, support
is the 20-day moving average at $4.66, which we bounced off of, with the fresh
high at $4.87 1/2 as resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with November trade
touching a fresh high overnight with meal leading the product complex heading
to the report and the summit. Meal is 5.00 to 6.00 higher and oil 80 to 90
points lower. On the report, trade is looking for 347 million bushels (mb) of
old-crop carryout and 355 mb of new. South America will continue to have the
advantage in the world export market in the short term ahead of the U.S./China
summit next week. Basis should remain flat with crush margins mostly holding.
Weekly export inspections were rangebound at 655,294 metric tons with
year-to-date pace at 77%. Planting and emergence should pick up through this
week as the weather warms. The weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show
planting and emergence well above average. On the July contract, chart support
is $11.89, where we find the 20-day moving average, and resistance is the
contract high at $12.40.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher at midday with trade working to
extend the bounce from support seen Friday with warmer weather likely to push
winter wheat maturity this week with a wetter second week expected. Weekly crop
progress is likely to show steady conditions with maturity well above average.
Spring wheat areas look drier for the balance of the remaining planting window.
The weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show planting and emergence just
ahead of average. Matif wheat is firmer to start. On the report, trade is
looking for old-crop carryout at 934 mb and new-crop at 833 mb. Weekly export
inspections were solid at 511,346 metric tons with year-to-date pace at 113%.
Black sea area weather continues to show little short-term change. On the KC
July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $6.69, with the fresh high
at $7.18 1/2 as resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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