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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/11 11:52
Cattle Continue to Inch Higher Thursday
Cash cattle bids are on the table in the South on Thursday, but none have
traded yet.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle contracts are continuing to rally into Thursday's noon hour, but
the lean hog complex hasn't found the same support. Bids are on the table in
the South, but no cattle have traded yet. July corn is down 5 1/4 cents per
bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is
up 387.35 points and NASDAQ is up 203.30 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle contracts are still mildly rallying as traders gingerly push
the contracts higher and closer to resistance at the market's 40-day moving
average. At this point, traders haven't seemed nervous about getting closer to
that resistance threshold, which hopefully means they'll hold this momentum
through Thursday's close. June live cattle are up $0.90 at $251.00, August live
cattle are up $1.07 at $242.57 and October live cattle are up $1.55 at $235.25.
Bids are on the table in three major feeding states, but because the offers are
well below asking prices trade could be delayed for a while still. Asking
prices are noted at $258 in the South but are not established in the North.
Thursday's WASDE report shared that beef production for 2026 was decreased
by 109 million pounds as both fed and non-fed slaughter speeds have declined.
However, it is worth nothing that the decline in slaughter is partially offset
by heavier carcass weights. The quarterly steer price projections didn't show
much of a change from May's report. The only quarter that saw an increase from
last month was second quarter steers averaged $255 -- up $2.00 from las month.
Steers in the third quarter are expected to average $252 and steers in the
third quarter are expected to average $255 -- both of which are unchanged from
a month ago. Beef imports for 2026 were steady at 6,109 million pounds, but
beef exports for 2026 fell by 20 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.59 ($394.88) and select down $0.41
($375.30) with a movement of 63 loads (44.09 loads of choice, 8.10 loads of
select, 7.39 loads of trim and 3.29 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Upon seeing the live cattle contracts scaling higher, the feeder cattle
contracts are boldly pushing higher into Thursday's noon hour. August feeders
are up $5.30 at $359.67, September feeders are up $4.72 at $356.10 and October
feeders are up $4.65 at $352.37. Helping add some additional support to the
market is the fact that buyers have been a tick more aggressive this week in
the countryside as the board's higher trend seems to have them buying more
confidently.
LEAN HOGS:
While the cattle contracts rally, the lean hog contracts continue to fall as
traders aren't confident in the marketplace right now. Yes, midday pork cutout
values may be higher, but traders have seen too much choppy trade lately to let
that alone hold the market steady. July lean hogs are down $0.27 at $96.57,
August lean hogs are up $0.12 at $95.55 and August lean hogs are up $0.15 at
$95.57. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/10/2026 is down $0.02 at $92.90
and the actual index for 6/9/2026 is up $0.16 at $92.92. Hog prices are higher
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.25 with a weighted average price
of $97.60, ranging from $93.00 to $98.00 on 904 head and a five-day rolling
average of $96.67. Pork cutouts total 137.43 loads with 128.47 loads of pork
cuts and 8.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.05, $97.01.
Thursday's WASDE report shared that pork production for 2026 was increased
by 10 million pounds as heavier carcass weights are more than offsetting the
slight decline in production. Meanwhile quarterly hog prices saw a decrease
from last month's report as hogs in the second quarter remained steady at
$64.50, but hogs in the third quarter are now expected to average $69 (down
$2.00) and hogs in the fourth quarter are now expected to average $74 (down
$3.00). Pork imports for 2026 grew by 10 million pounds and pork exports for
2026 grew by 20 million pounds.
Note:
The cattle complex has seen record-high prices in the last year. But it's
also been saddled with record-high risk and volatility, among many other
challenges. To better understand these challenges, join Livestock Analyst
ShayLe Stewart for DTN's inaugural Beef Industry Exchange webinar hosted by
Senior Livestock Editor Jennifer Carrico on June 24.
In addition to ShayLe's cattle market update, DTN Ag Meteorologist John
Baranick will share how variability and a building Super El Nino might save or
doom U.S. pastures. Considering widespread drought conditions across the U.S.,
cow-calf producers may be considering a reduction of the herd. To prepare for
this, Aaron Berger, a University of Nebraska Lincoln Beef Systems Extension
Educator, shares different strategies to set up cow herd rebuilding when it
rains again. Register today:
https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdtn.link%2FBee
fIndustryExchange&data=05%7C02%7CCheri.Zagurski%40dtn.com%7C87586e0879a148fe41b0
08dec7d8bf02%7Cd945da26f07f451496e79b8f78a743d0%7C0%7C0%7C639167930896357477%7CU
nknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiI
sIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ny673EkjYxJx5NoSskvU7faEJy6
%2FAll50U4Hh8BPKO4%3D&reserved=0
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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