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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 01/26 11:36
Traders Drive Livestock Contracts Higher
With more than enough fundamental support being available in both the cattle
and hog sectors, traders have ultimately elected to drive the contracts higher
at Monday's start.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is off to a stronger start the week, as traders are
noting more than enough fundamental support to justify trading the contracts
higher. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas,
and Nebraska/Colorado. March corn is down 2 cents per bushel and March soybean
meal is down $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 186.92 points and
the NASDAQ is up 178.84 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Last Friday was a whirlwind of developing factors for the live cattle market
to note and keep track of, between the fed cash cattle that finally developed,
and the monthly Cattle on Feed report that was released. Thankfully, the
neutral to slightly bearish tone of the Cattle on Feed report was quickly
overlooked by the strong developments in the fed cash cattle market, as traders
have elected to again push the live cattle contracts higher today. February
live cattle are up $0.67 at $235.57, April live cattle are up $0.45 at $237.40
and June live cattle are up $0.57 at $233.07. What will remain an obstacle for
the market to manage this week is the technical resistance that's formed in the
live cattle complex. There's an argument to be made that the market could
potentially break through that barrier if fed cash cattle prices are higher
again this week, but that's taking a fairly bullish look at the marketplace.
Even if prices do trade higher again this week, there's a strong likelihood
that traders won't want to challenge that threshold, especially considering
that later this week, the highly anticipated Cattle Inventory report is set to
be released. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in
Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week, Southern live cattle traded mostly at $233 to $235, which is
mostly steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern
dressed cattle traded at mostly $370, which is $5.00 higher than the previous
week's weighted average.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.33 ($369.25) and select up $3.58
($365.97) with a movement of 50 loads (32.53 loads of choice, 3.84 loads of
select, 4.95 loads of trim and 8.53 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle contracts are also trading higher as the market finds
power and momentum in the fact that fed cash cattle prices continue to scale
higher. March feeders are up $0.72 at $360.90, April feeders are up $0.82 at
$359.57 and May feeders are up $0.92 at $356.97. So long as the live cattle
contracts continue to trade higher, the feeder cattle complex will also likely
do the same.
LEAN HOGS:
And last but not least, the lean hog contracts are also enjoying a mild
rally into midday Monday. February lean hogs are down $0.07 at $88.27, April
lean hogs are up $0.60 at $96.77 and June lean hogs are up $0.70 at $109.20.
The market has seen steady support from consumers, which has helped encourage
the contracts to continue to trade higher, although the market is continuing to
drive to new contract highs when it does so.
The projected lean hog index for 1/23/2026 is up $0.39 at $84.01 and the
actual index for 1/22/2026 is up $0.55 at $83.62. Hog prices are unavailable on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because no hogs have traded yet. The only
thing we can note from the report is that the market's five-day rolling average
sits at $80.86. Pork cutouts total 120.78 loads with 100.24 loads of pork cuts
and 20.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.62, $97.37.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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