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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/16 11:44
Livestock Contracts Turn Lower Thursday
Still no cash cattle trade has developed and there's a chance trade could be
delayed until after Friday's Cattle on Feed Report.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock contracts are trading lower into Thursday's noon hour as
traders simply aren't confident with the current level of fundamental support
to push the contracts any higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. May
corn is down 2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up 96.95 points and NASDAQ is up 82.39 points.
Thursday's export report shared beef net sales of 12,100 metric tons (mt)
for 2026 were down 31% from the previous week, but up 12% from the prior
four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (4,900 MT,
including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 400
MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT, including 100 MT switched from Hong
Kong and decreases of 200 MT), and Canada (400 MT). Pork exports of 13,400 MT
were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior
4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,200 MT),
Japan (3,000 MT), Hong Kong (1,500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,100
MT).
LIVE CATTLE
It's been a grim day thus far for the live cattle complex as currently most
of the contracts are trading anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 lower into Thursday's
noon hour. The big question on everyone's mind is: Has the market topped? Or is
this just a setback as traders wait for the cash cattle market to trade? Up to
this point, there's still been virtually no trade in the cash market, and it's
very likely trade could be delayed until after Friday's Cattle on Feed report.
Bids of $248 live in Kansas and $388 dressed in Nebraska are currently on the
table, but still no sizeable volumes have traded. Personally, I'm led to
believe that with packers unable to get more than 40,000 head bought last week
in the cash market. they'll need to be more aggressive this week and feedlot
managers may be able to push prices higher, or at least hold them steady. But
as always, time will tell.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.56 ($382.54) and select up $0.46
($379.04) with a movement of 52 loads (34.84 loads of choice, 4.05 loads of
select, 7.89 loads of trim and 5.64 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
And in reflecting a similar reaction of the live cattle contracts, the
feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower into Thursday's noon hour. April
feeders are down $1.92 at $371.57, May feeders are down $4.52 at $266.42 and
August feeders are down $4.37 at $367.82. And until either the live cattle
contracts show some stability and potentially trade higher, or until the cash
cattle market trades, it's likely the feeder cattle contracts will keep with
this lower trend.
LEAN HOGS
Again on Thursday, even with midday pork cutout values up close to $2.00
higher, the lean hog contracts are trading lower. June lean hogs are down $0.15
at $101.80, July lean hogs are down $0.42 at $104.55 and August lean hogs are
down $0.35 at $104.80. Unfortunately, the market seems committed to keeping
with its current downward trend, and the next support plane is close to $94.00
in the spot June contract.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/15/206 is up $0.06 at $90.66 and the
actual index for 4/14/2026 is up $0.27 at $90.60. Hog prices are unavailable on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can
see that only 349 head have traded this morning and that the market's five-day
rolling average now sits at $90.85. Pork cutouts total 190.56 load with 146.23
loads of pork cuts and 44.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.90,
$97.04.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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